Sales Numbers

On a national level, we hear reports that tried to make October's 3.4% drop in Existing Home Sales prove that the housing recovery has firmly changed direction. October may have been down, but the 5.36 million unit annual rate puts Existing Homes Sales up 3.9% over a year ago. Housing data can be volatile from month to month and many observers expect sales growth to return next month. I think that the supply shortage is the bigger issue right now, as total inventory was down 2.3% at the end of October. But the median price was up 5.8% over a year ago, the 44th straight month of price gains, which should draw more sellers into the market.
At the local level, there were 3,030 home closings reported for the month of October, according to figures provided by the Greater Nashville Association of REALTORS. This figure is up .5 percent from the 3,015 closings reported for the same period last year. Year-to-date closings for the Greater Nashville area have increased 11.9 percent. And to further my point about supply, inventory is down almost 15% compared to last October here in the mid-state.
We did get nice headline numbers on the new homes front nationally. New single-family homes sales shot up 10.7% in October to a 495,000 annual rate, up 4.9% versus a year ago. This performance was a strong rebound from the drop in September, one more example of monthly volatility. The important thing again is the trend in sales, which has been up, and many analysts expect it to stay there in the coming year. Other data continued to show housing is an appreciating investment. The FHFA index of homes financed with conforming mortgages was up 0.8% in September and up 6.1% over a year ago. The Case-Shiller home price index was also up 0.2% in September and up 4.9% from the year before.
An interesting tidbit on those seeking a mortgage: All-cash sales of existing homes are down 7.7% versus a year ago, while sales with a mortgage are up 8.1%, so a good sign for home buyers seeking financing.